Agam Labs survey finds Religious Zionism and Haredim least affected politically by October 7 violence, focus shifts to religion-state tensions ahead of elections.

Israel stands at a pivotal moment, facing national elections amidst ongoing security challenges. Recent polling data from Agam Labs, initiated in August 2023 and continuing with thousands of respondents, including those surveyed initially, suggests a significant shift in the Israeli political landscape. The October 7 Hamas attacks and the subsequent wars have profoundly impacted Israeli society, yet the survey indicates that the religious community, encompassing both Religious Zionism and the Haredim, may have been less swayed politically by these external events.
The political identification of many Religious Zionists is explicitly tied to their religious beliefs, which appear more stable than other ideological anchors. This stability was notably reflected in the November 2022 elections, where a joint slate featuring Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Noam parties emphasized religious identity. Otzma Yehudit traces its lineage to the banned Kach movement, founded by Rabbi Meir Kahane in the 1970s, known for its hardline views on Arabs. Noam, meanwhile, promotes policies opposing LGBTQ+ rights and is strongly associated with the hardal faction within Religious Zionism, blending quasi-ultra-Orthodox traditions with stringent Zionism. This coalition secured 14 parliamentary seats, marking a significant presence.
Bezalel Smotrich of Religious Zionism and Itamar Ben Gvir of Otzma Yehudit have emerged as prominent figures, advocating for policies centered on West Bank settlements. Their platform emphasizes asserting Jewish power and dominance within and beyond Israel’s internationally recognized borders. However, questions arise about the extent to which these hardline religious politicians truly represent the broader Israeli religious demographic.
Nimrod Nir, the director of Agam Labs, clarifies that while external threats remain a concern, the most pressing issue for Israelis today is the deep internal divide concerning the relationship between religion and the state. He notes that for the past six to seven years, the political spectrum was largely defined by foreign policy, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict. Now, the fractures are internal, focusing on power struggles and the balance between religious and secular authority. A telling finding from the surveys is that over 60% of respondents identified the greatest threats to Israel’s existence as internal, rather than external, even during the Iran-related tensions. This underscores a profound fear of societal polarization over these sensitive issues.

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