Israeli Leaders Warn of Iranian Strikes Ahead of Elections, Cite Risk of Miscalculation

Israeli officials have warned that Iran and its proxies may consider launching attacks against Israel ahead of the upcoming election, citing intelligence suggesting that a major security incident could impact public confidence and influence the vote. Senior officials told Maariv that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have issued public warnings about potential attacks during the election period. These statements are intended primarily to deter Israel’s enemies and prevent them from carrying out their plans.

Netanyahu and Katz have repeatedly warned of a potential Iranian strike in the days leading up to the elections. Katz has stated that any attack would be the fault of the opposition for ignoring his warnings. Defense officials have expressed concern that the repeated statements by political leaders about the possibility of an imminent attack, combined with extensive media coverage, could lead to a miscalculation by Iran. One concern is that Tehran could interpret the warnings as preparations for an Israeli attack and consequently decide to strike first.

Despite a recent Financial Times report indicating that Israel had canceled a planned strike on Iran earlier this month at the request of US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu has denied that the IDF had planned to attack first. A defense source told Walla that the sensitive period and the tense wait for decisions in the White House and Jerusalem regarding the possibility of a strike against Iran are increasing the likelihood of confrontation. “As time passes, it is increasingly likely that we will have to go through a confrontation with Iran. Everything could change, but between a reality in which we reach an agreement with Iran and one in which we attack, the likelihood of war is growing.”

The source emphasized that the alert level remains extremely high, with the IDF’s directorates, branches, and corps conducting situational assessments accordingly, alongside US Central Command (CENTCOM). “Coordination and updates take place daily,” the source said, adding that Israel is monitoring not only Tehran but also its proxies, amid concerns that Iran could force them to join the fighting if another military campaign breaks out.

Concerns about an escalation triggered by miscalculation also explain the military officials’ caution. The situation remains tense as Israel and its allies navigate the delicate balance between deterrence and diplomacy, with the potential for conflict looming over the election period.

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