Israel warns Turkey against expanding military presence in Syria after strike near Idlib

David M. Weinberg, in a column published by The Jerusalem Post on August 22, 2026, argues that Israel must draw concrete red lines in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. He warns that unless it does, the Turkish army and navy will further encroach upon Israel’s northern and maritime borders, and that Israel could face Turkish tanks on the Golan Heights and Turkish frigates off the coast of Caesarea.

Weinberg writes that he heard this warning during the week from a very senior Israeli intelligence official, whom he does not name. He also cites the 2025 Nagel Commission report, which evaluated Israel’s security budget and force buildup. According to Weinberg, the report cautioned about the Turkish drive toward an Islamist-jihadist regional order with Ottoman-era hegemonic ambitions, and said Israel must be prepared for direct confrontation with Ankara and with Syrian proxies and armies aligned with Turkey. The report stated: “The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat.”

Weinberg links these concerns to an Israeli air strike several days before his column, on an airbase near Idlib in northern Syria. He writes that the Turks apparently were setting up a radar and air defense system meant to interfere with Israeli Air Force operations in the north. He says the strike sent a signal to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and to Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa, whom he describes as a former ISIS terrorist also known as Mohammed al-Julani, to back off.

The column characterizes Erdogan in strongly negative terms. Weinberg describes him as a radical Islamist dictator and says he holds antisemitic beliefs, including treating the Protocols of the Elders of Zion as true. Weinberg also writes that Erdogan seeks to lead a pan-Islamic coalition against Israel while remaining a NATO member, that Erdogan anchors a Sunni alliance including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Qatar with some Egyptian role, and that Erdogan has drafted a model constitution for an Islamic confederation meant to replace NATO. These are the columnist’s assertions, not findings reported by the Israeli government.

Weinberg cites US President Donald Trump as saying that Erdogan’s military was prepared to join Iran’s war against Israel this year until Trump “asked” Erdogan not to do so. Weinberg writes that Erdogan has nonetheless sided with Russia against the West in defense of Iran, and that Turkey hosts Hamas military headquarters, claims the column presents without a separate source. He also criticizes Trump and his special envoy to Turkey and Syria, Tom Barrack, for saying nothing about Turkey’s alignment with Russia, China and Iran, its military presence in northern Cyprus and northern Syria, or its activities against Israel.

Weinberg states that Israel has not declared Turkey an enemy country and does not want to consider it one, but that it cannot ignore Turkey’s military buildup and its expansion into Syria. He writes that the recent strike was designed to push back against Turkish air intrusion, and that Israel will certainly strike again if Erdogan insists on expanding his military presence in Syria or attempts to rebuild the Syrian air force. This is a lesson in pursuing peace while holding firm boundaries (Matthew 5:9).

Weinberg writes that the more immediate Turkish threat comes from its large navy, since Erdogan repeatedly threatens to wage war with Israel over gas fields in the Mediterranean.

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