Israeli Defense Officials Assess Iran Stalling Nuclear Talks as US Weighs Possible Strikes

Israel’s defense establishment is maintaining ambiguity about its preparations for a possible escalation with Iran, according to Israeli defense assessments published on Friday, as the White House gives the Iranian regime another opportunity to return to negotiations. Defense officials assess that Iran, which faces an economic crisis that is worsening from week to week, will not sign an agreement requiring it to abandon its nuclear program entirely, and will not agree to stop producing ballistic missiles that now also threaten Europe. In their view, Iran is merely attempting to buy time, and it has reportedly been deliberately prolonging negotiations ahead of the US midterm elections.

According to the same assessments, Iranian security agencies have suppressed the first signs of street resistance and have prevented renewed protest movements from organizing.

Defense officials further assess that, despite preparations by the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) for a possible strike on Iran, the White House will not order an operation before the midterms unless it detects preparations for a surprise attack. The US and Israel have also reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms. The source notes that more than 3,000 American troops are currently stationed in Israel and that no sharp increase was recorded in the number of US military aircraft redirected to the country the previous week. This contrasts with an earlier unprecedented deployment of US military refueling aircraft at Ben-Gurion Airport and Ramon Airport, alongside a significant presence at Israeli Air Force bases.

Against this backdrop, Israel’s defense establishment assesses that immediately after the midterms the White House will renew pressure on Jerusalem to advance the establishment of a “terrorism-free” Palestinian city on the ruins of Rafah, funded by the United Arab Emirates. According to a defense source, there is approval in principle to establish a “bubble” within Palestinian territory that is currently under a high degree of IDF operational control. IDF troops are still operating in the designated area in the southern Gaza Strip, searching for unexploded ordnance, explosive devices, and infrastructure above and below ground. At least according to the original plan, the first phase is intended to accommodate tens of thousands of Palestinians, a goal the source presents as part of the plan’s aim of protecting the vulnerable (Psalm 82:3).

Senior defense officials oppose any progress toward rebuilding the Gaza Strip without first disarming Hamas and demilitarizing the territory, including transferring governing authority from Hamas to a third party. US officials and representatives of the Board of Peace have been preparing to identify locations for Hamas weapons handovers under the US-backed plan. Senior Southern Command officials told Walla during the week that Hamas has no intention of disarming and has backed away from the proposal to surrender its weapons and place them in storage facilities inside the Gaza Strip. Accordingly, Southern Command officials assess that, regardless of which government is formed, the IDF is preparing for a ground maneuver aimed at capturing Gaza City and dismantling the terrorist infrastructure within it.

In the West Bank city of Hebron, the source reports that IDF troops are preparing to demolish the homes of the terrorists who carried out an attack the previous week, in which two active-duty soldiers were killed. The attack prompted extensive IDF operations in the area, and the home demolitions are expected to take place on Saturday.

For this reason, a decision was made not to reduce troop levels until the mission is completed.

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