US weighs new Iran strikes as Vance reaches out to Tehran on ending war

Over the past week, Washington and Tehran have sent mixed signals about whether their eight-month war is heading back to full-scale strikes or toward a peace deal. On Thursday, the head of United States Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, briefed US President Donald Trump on options for renewed attacks on Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported. The New York Times reported last week that the US and Israel have drawn up joint plans to attack Iran after the November 3 US midterm elections.

On the same day as the Journal’s report, The Washington Post reported that Vice President JD Vance had offered to meet Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in person to negotiate an end to the war. On Friday, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran for talks coordinated with the US, an official told Reuters. Al Jazeera’s analysis notes that Washington is preparing for war while keeping a diplomatic channel open.

The Journal reported that the US has boosted air defences and munitions in the region and moved some troops away from bases vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that ten US military cargo planes landed at the Ovda and Nevatim air bases in Israel’s Negev region on Thursday, with more sent to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who said he had been briefed on the plans, called them “insane” and warned of a devastating escalation.

According to the NYT, Vance’s letter, delivered to Rezaei through Qatari mediators on Sunday, proposed direct talks led by Vance, with Iran’s nuclear programme on the table from the start, in a bid to prevent a renewal of strikes. The outreach reflects a step toward peacemaking, even as military preparations continue (Matthew 5:9).

Analysts disagree on how much weight the outreach carries. Rouzbeh Parsi, an Iran analyst and affiliated researcher at Lund University in Sweden, described Vance as the “voice of reason” on Iran within the Trump administration, saying his signals have been “the least volatile and unpredictable.” He also told Al Jazeera that Vance’s position has “never proven to be sturdy enough to actually sway Trump,” and doubted that Iranian officials give the outreach much credence until Vance can deliver something on his own. Nader Hashemi, a professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera that “Rezaei is just one voice among many,” adding that “decisions are made collectively inside the Islamic republic.”

Wolfgang Pusztai, a security and defence analyst and Austria’s former defence attaché to Libya, offered a different view. He told Al Jazeera that “there is no doubt that the IRGC currently calls the shots in Iran,” and that Iran’s then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the initial attacks by Israel and the United States in February. Khamenei’s son became the new supreme leader, but Pusztai says he “simply does not have the influence his father did.” Pusztai said “without the IRGC’s approval, there will be no agreement with Iran,” and that it is safe to assume Rezaei’s statements reflect the position of the IRGC leadership.

Pusztai said it is unclear whether Rezaei is ready to make a serious compromise. He argued that under sustained US pressure, Rezaei, who holds a doctorate in economics, could come to see that “Iran’s interests and the regime’s survival can be better secured without nuclear weapons and through a less aggressive foreign policy.”

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