CSA Report Ranks Kuwait Most Likely to Join Abraham Accords; Lebanon and Syria Follow

Kuwait is ranked first among nine Muslim-majority Middle East nations with no diplomatic ties to Israel as the most likely to join the Abraham Accords, according to a report by the Council for a Secure America (CSA). The report, titled “Abraham Accords Expansion Opportunities: Middle East Analysis,” evaluates the geopolitical landscape and factors influencing potential normalization with Israel. Jennifer Sutton, Executive Director of CSA, emphasized the importance of U.S. engagement in the region, citing recent events such as the 25th anniversary of 9/11, the sixth anniversary of the Abraham Accords, and the third anniversary of October 7th. She noted the heightened aggression from Iran and its proxies, which has reshaped the region’s dynamics.

The CSA report considers various elements, including domestic political structures, public sentiment, relations with the United States and Israel, regional alliances, economic interests, and ongoing conflicts, particularly with Iran. The analysis also incorporates CSA’s June 2026 polling in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. Over 80 percent of Israelis support the Abraham Accords, while in Syria, 46 percent of respondents expressed support for normalization with Israel, with 19 percent opposing it.

Kuwait’s position at the top of the rankings is attributed to its close ties with the United Arab Emirates, a signatory of the Accords in 2020, and its strong relationship with the United States. In September 2026, Israel’s ambassador to the UAE, Yossi Shelley, indicated that Kuwait could join the Accords within six months. This suggests a growing alignment between Kuwait and Israel, potentially driven by shared strategic and economic interests.

Lebanon is ranked second, with the report noting that a majority of Lebanese support President Aoun’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah. In June 2026, Lebanon agreed to a U.S.-brokered “Trilateral Framework,” which marks a significant step toward recognizing Israeli sovereignty for the first time. This development reflects a shift in Lebanon’s political landscape and its potential for closer ties with Israel, despite ongoing regional tensions.

Syria is ranked third, with the report highlighting a security-to-peace transition. President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated in September 2026 that Israel and Syria had “almost reached agreements on 90% of the issues between them,” following his November 2025 visit to the White House, the first by a Syrian president. Public opinion in Syria, as per CSA polling, indicates that 57 percent of Syrians believe peace with Israel is likely in the future, suggesting a gradual shift in attitudes toward normalization.

Saudi Arabia, which was previously considered close to normalization, ranks fourth. However, the 2026 Iran War has increased its caution. Oman, Qatar, and Iraq are rated unlikely in the near term, primarily due to their connections with Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood. These rankings underscore the complex interplay of regional politics, security concerns, and economic interests in shaping the path toward potential normalization with Israel.

Source: Read the original report